UK may record 119,900 new coronavirus deaths this winter, experts say in a report from the Academy of Medical Sciences and recommend “intense preparation."
In the report “Preparing for a challenging winter 2020/2021," the group of scientists call on the UK government to prepare for a potential new surge of coronavirus infections. They say this new wave could be more serious than the first and warned that UK may face 120,000 additional coronavirus deaths this winter.
An advisory group of 37 experts from the academy suggests intense preparation for the rest of July and August to ease the risk of burdening the National Health Service this winter.
The report's model predicts that Covid-19 infections in the UK will soar again in the fall and reach a peak in January and February, the busiest time of year for the NHS.
According to experts, the number of hospital deaths this winter would be twice the number from the first wave.
However, the models do not take into account the use of drugs, treatments, or coronavirus vaccines. The information also does not cover deaths in care homes and the community.
Based on the data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, the coronavirus outbreak has infected over 291,000 people, with a death toll of 44,915.
Patrick Vallance, the British government’s chief scientific adviser, requested that the report must present a “reasonable” worst-case scenario.
“The modelling suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of Covid-19 this winter, but the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately,” Stephen Holgate, a respiratory scientist from University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, wrote in the report.
“With relatively low numbers of Covid-19 cases at the moment, this is a critical window of opportunity to help us prepare for the worst that winter can throw at us,” he noted.
Holgate pointed out that the report's findings did not predict what would happen, but laid down a scenario of the outcome if the virus spreads further and the NHS and social care services do not receive adequate protection.
Public information campaign
The proposals of the scientists are a public information campaign, reevaluation of health and social care staff facilities to establish Covid-19-free zones, and improved capacity of the country’s “test, trace and isolate” program.
According to the report, the government must implement a “comprehensive, near-real-time, population-wide surveillance system to monitor and manage a winter wave.”
Health experts previously announced that weather conditions in winter may lead to a more intense transmission of the virus. Covid-19 was “very likely” to manifest the same seasonal pattern to other coronaviruses, they added.
People usually stay indoors together, with less space and less ventilation in summer.
Coronaviruses and other respiratory illnesses spread through droplets from a person's coughing or sneezing. Health experts explain that cooler and drier conditions in winter strongly influence the transmission of such diseases.
According to the World Health Organization, it was examining new evidence on whether the coronavirus is airborne.
“Every winter we see an increase in the number of people admitted to hospital and in the number of people dying in the U.K.,” Anne Johnson, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London and vice president of the Academy of Medical Sciences, said in the report.
“This is due to a combination of seasonal infections such as flu, and the effects of colder weather, for example, on heart and lung conditions,” Johnson said. “This winter we have to factor in the likelihood of another wave of coronavirus infections and the ongoing impacts of the first wave. We have to be prepared that we might also experience a flu epidemic this year.”
