The report from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) suggests Joe Biden has big chances of winning in the presidential election in November.
Economists predict that Joe Biden has huge chances of winning the election as the odds have moved “firmly” in favor of him.
According to EIU's report, the forecast for the election had showed a different direction in recent months. While economists believe it would be closely fought, “the odds have now shifted firmly in Mr. Biden’s favour.”
Early in 2020, economists projected that President Donald Trump may win another term due to a thriving economy, low unemployment, and clashes within the Democratic Party. However, the economists believe those things have changed due to the coronavirus crisis, the recession, and the series of civil unrest in half a century.
“Trump’s response to both crises has further exposed his divisive style, which is unpopular among the independent voters who will be critical in deciding the election’s outcome,” the report noted.
“Meanwhile, Democratic voters have rallied behind their nominee, Joe Biden.”
Data shows that Trump has an advantage due to a strong base, which analysts say accounts for 40% to 44% of the population. However, the EIU said Trump persuade voters from outside of that core base to win against Biden in November.
“The Trump campaign has lost most of its previous advantages in recent months,” analysts said. “As a result, we do not expect him to be able to generate enough support from swing voters to follow the same narrow path to victory in 2020.”
US economy
The state of the US economy is a critical development for the Trump campaign in the election, according to the EIU.
“Earlier hopes that the economy would rebound strongly in the third quarter of 2020 as coronavirus lockdown measures are lifted now appear far-fetched,” economists said in the report. They assert that consumer spending may not return to pre-pandemic levels until a Covid-19 vaccine became widely available. However, economists think that a vaccine would not be available until at least the end of 2021.
“Weak demand will continue to weigh on businesses and most likely keep unemployment around 10% at the time of the election,” they said.
The report pointed out that fiscal stimulus had saved many households from the pandemic-induced economic downturn.
“This does not bode well for Trump, as economic conditions immediately surrounding elections are a strong determinant of voter behavior,” they said. However, economists added that this alone was not enough to boost the president’s standing in the election.
Wildcards
The EIU mentioned “a number of wildcards” that may affect the outcome of the presidential election in November.
The organization added that protests across the US would have important implications. they noted that an excessive use of force against protesters can keep swing voters from the Trump administration.
“Trump’s focus on law enforcement will resonate with his core supporters. However, his disdain for the protests will mobilize black voters and could antagonize suburban voters, most likely strengthening voter turnout for Biden from these two key demographics,” economists said.
