White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci has expressed uncertainty over producing a highly effective vaccine, saying the chances are slim.
There is little chance that scientists can develop a highly effective vaccine, one that can provide 98% or more guaranteed protection, according to Dr. Fauci.
The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases pointed out that scientists aim to come up with a Covid-19 vaccine that is at least 75% effective, but 50% or 60% effective would be acceptable.
“The chances of it being 98% effective is not great, which means you must never abandon the public health approach," he said during a Q&A with the Brown University School of Public Health.
“You’ve got to think of the vaccine as a tool to be able to get the pandemic to no longer be a pandemic, but to be something that’s well controlled,” he noted.
At least 50% effective
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced it would authorize a coronavirus vaccine that is safe and at least 50% effective.
According to Dr. Stephen Hahn, the FDA’s commissioner, the Covid-19 vaccine or vaccines that receive authorization will prove to be more than 50% effective. However, the US is likely to get a vaccine that, on average, minimizes a person’s risk of a Covid-19 infection by only 50%.
“We really felt strongly that that had to be the floor,” Hahn said on July 30, adding that it’s “been batted around among medical groups.”
“But for the most part, I think, infectious disease experts have agreed that that’s a reasonable floor, of course hoping that the actual effectiveness will be higher.”
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that a 50% effective coronavirus vaccine would be roughly similar with those for influenza, but not more effective than one dose of a measles vaccination, which is about 93% effective.
Meanwhile, public health officials and scientists are determined to find whether at least one of the potential coronavirus vaccines being currently developed across the world is safe and effective by the end of December or early next year, though there is never a guarantee.
Drug manufacturers Pfizer and Moderna both started their late-stage trials for their potential Covid-19 vaccines last week and both expect to sign up 30,000 participants.
Dr. Fauci has previously expressed his concern about the “durability” of a vaccine, saying if Covid-19 moves like other coronaviruses, it may not give people long-term protection.
Returning to "normal"
However, health experts say there is no returning to “normal” until there is a coronavirus vaccine. Dr. Fauci’s statement came a day after the World Health Organization warned about the development of vaccines, stressing that there may never be a “silver bullet” for the coronavirus, which still infects people across the world.
The pending phase three trials do not necessarily mean that a Covid-19 vaccine is ready for distribution to the public, the agency said.
“Phase three doesn’t mean nearly there,” Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s emergencies health program, said during a virtual panel discussion with “NBC Nightly News” Anchor Lester Holt hosted by the Aspen Security Forum. “Phase three means this is the first time this vaccine has been put into the general population into otherwise healthy individuals to see if the vaccine will protect them against natural infection.”
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus reiterated that there is no guarantee even if scientists are working on developing a safe and effective vaccine.
“We cannot say we have vaccines. We may or may not,” he said.
