The coronavirus pandemic may last for two years, according to scientists from the University of Minnesota.
Experts from the University of Minnesota believe that the current public health crisis will likely last between 18 and 24 months.
According to their report, the coronavirus pandemic was more contagious than the flu. It was likely to spread even after a first wave this spring.
Researchers from the university’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) noted that the new coronavirus has a longer incubation period than the flu. This means that symptoms may take longer to appear after a person got the virus.
They explained that the coronavirus may be at its most contagious before symptoms appear. Moreover, COVID-19 also manifested a higher rate of asymptomatic transmission as well as a higher R0 rating than influenza.
COVID-19′s R0
An R naught, or R0, rating of 1 happens when an infected person passes the virus to one other person. An outbreak may persist if a disease has an R naught value higher than 1 during a pandemic.
In addition, COVID-19′s R0 is estimated between 1.4 and 5.7 in various studies. However, CIDRAP stressed that a rating was difficult to set due to variations in determining and testing infected people in different regions.
“Some countries appear to have been able to drive their R0 for (Covid-19) below 1 with mitigation measures, although as the mitigation measures are lifted, the R0 in any given area may creep back above 1, leading to disease resurgence over time,” the report’s authors said.
“A higher R0 means more people will need to get infected and become immune before the pandemic can end,” they said. “It likely won’t be halted until 60% to 70% of the population is immune.”
Researchers predicted that the COVID-19 outbreak would last between 18 months and two years.
Three scenarios
The first scenario would last through spring 2020. Then, “a series of repetitive smaller waves” would occur throughout the summer. This will be consistent over a one to two-year period. The virus would then slowly disappear “sometime in 2021.”
“Depending on the height of the wave peaks, this scenario could require periodic reinstitution and subsequent relaxation of mitigation measures over the next one to two years.”
The second scenario has the first wave of the coronavirus in the spring first before a larger wave in the fall or winter of 2020. The report adds that one or more smaller waves would come afterward in 2021. This scenario was similar to the one experienced during the 1918 flu outbreak.
Based on the report, the final scenario sees the first wave fading into a “slow burn” of ongoing transmission. However, there is no visible wave pattern. The pattern could be different based on locations. The degree of mitigation measures in place in different regions could be a factor.
“Whichever scenario the pandemic follows — assuming at least some level of ongoing mitigation measures — we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant COVID-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas,” scientists said.
